Mogadishu Somalia Events

After closing its embassy in Mogadishu for more than a decade as the country slid into civil war, the US has reopened a permanent diplomatic facility in Somalia. Following the events surrounding the incident in which 18 US soldiers were killed in and around Mog Somalia, and the subsequent death of another US soldier in the same city in January 2013, the US military has been more active in Somalia in the past. Somali government troops and African Union peacekeepers from the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). While clinging to heavily defended towns and villages, suicide bombings have increased in Somaliland in recent weeks as they try to hold onto their positions, as African Union peacekeepers and their allies try to reopen Somalia's main supply route.

If you are travelling or working in Somalia, including Somaliland, you should be aware of the risk of kidnapping. Kidnappings are likely in all parts of Somalia, including the regions bordering Kenya and Ethiopia, as well as in Somalia's neighbouring country.

AMISOM will be weakened if the Ethiopian government withdraws more troops from Somalia, and Madobe could be encouraged to enter Gedo and try to drive Somali federal troops out of Jubaland, possibly triggering a conflict with the remaining Ethiopian troops in the region. As the US exits, Somalia could become a battleground for influence between the four countries, as it has in recent years. It could easily bring down one of the complex civil wars in Ethiopia, Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia's neighbor, the Democratic Republic of Congo.

AMISOM's efforts to stabilize Ethiopia, and Somalia as well, have thus not been as successful as expected.

African countries better equipped to fight al-Shabab should the United States be able to orchestrate a phased withdrawal from Somalia at the right time and avoid the security crisis that would accompany Trump's plan. Equally problematic is that the many risks associated with an immediate US withdrawal from Somalia make - and advise - the Trump proposal bad.

A US withdrawal from Somalia could strengthen al-Shabab, leave Somali forces without a reliable external partner to fight terrorism, and further escalate the conflict in the Horn of Africa, where its transnational reach could trigger a new wave of terrorist attacks against the United States and its allies in Somalia. An abrupt US withdrawal from Somalia could help Al-Shab Abab has achieved its goal of expanding its reach across the border and further destabilizing the region.

Al-Shabaab and the Islamic State in Somalia could disrupt this process and capitalize on the resulting instability. With the Horn of Africa's internal conflict escalating, Abiy and Isaias may feel compelled to abandon Mohamed in favor of a more moderate and inclusive government.

While France and Britain are unlikely to fill that gap, the Somali National Army has asked for increased support from the African Union (AU), which has more than 21,000 troops in Somalia. The situation in Somali has increased pressure on the Somali government and the international community to scale back the use of such militias.

AMISOM is due to officially end its mission in Somalia by the end of 2021, but Somalia is not ready for a transition to security. As a United Nations representative in Mogadishu put it: "We are trying to reduce the number of Somali murders without ever resolving the conflict. Somali civilians, however, have welcomed the UN troops who arrived during Operation Restore Hope in the early 1990s. While some became international aid workers, most Somalis welcomed them with open arms.

In August 2000, Somalis met in Djibouti for a representative council and took the first steps towards the restoration of a government in Somalia. Members of the Murjateen clan in northeastern Somalia founded their own state, Puntland, and agreed to rejoin Somalia once a central government was formed.

At the same time, most Somalis want to unite the regions of Somalia that many of them inhabit. This further intensifies the conflict between the Murjateen clan in north-eastern Somalia and the Puntland clans in southern Somalia.

In recent years, stabilisation efforts in Somalia have focused on the transfer of power from Mogadishu to the Somali regions and the transformation of a previously centralised Somalia into a federation. There is little agreement on the borders of the areas controlled by the main parties to the conflict.

Somali factions signed an agreement in Cairo on 23 December 1997, which provided for the formation of a central government in Mogadishu and the transfer of power to the Somali regions. After several failed attempts to organize a central government, two thousand Somalis representing clans and subclans met in the city of Mombasa on 16 October 1998 to discuss the formation of a Somali government.

Since then, Somalia has been one of the least developed countries in the world due to ongoing conflicts, recurrent floods and droughts. Somalia hosts more than 1.5 million registered refugees, of whom 38,000 who fled to Yemen and returned to Somalia in 2015 are severely affected by the country's insecurity. According to the UN, more than two million Somalis are in urgent need of aid, and one in six children in central Somalia is malnourished.

More About Mogadishu

More About Mogadishu